CBRE Releases Real Estate Market Update Highlighting Key Trends in HCMC - H1 2022

Ho Chi Minh City – 06 July 2022
HCMC Office Market

There was one new Grade B office building in H1 2022, which is CMC Creative Space in District 7. The total net leasable office supply in HCMC was at roughly 1.5 million sqm.

Even though there was limited supply within the first half of 2022 compared to 2021, the HCMC office market still recorded a good recovery with the total net absorption in H1 being 21,000 sqm, equivalent to 38% in 2021. The average vacancy rate of Grade A decreased by 1.6 ppt q-o-q and 2.1 ppt y-o-y to 10.1%, mainly due to the major absorption in decentralization cluster, District 7. Meanwhile, the average vacancy rate of Grade B remained at 9.7%, almost the same as of last year.

Information Technology (IT) and Service industries accounted for more than 50% of total transacted areas. IT firms with growing business and investment continue to expand their leasing premise and quickly finalize their decision within only 3 – 6 months. With the recovery of manufacturing after the pandemic, sourcing companies are coming back to Vietnam and actively seeking premise to settle down their office, making up a remarkably rising percentage of new lease. All these brands are from the US, including outdoor equipment, sports equipment, etc.

For leasing purposes, relocation still accounted for the most significant proportion with more than 50% of total transactions, and the remaining transactions were for expansion, renewal and new letting (27%, 12% and 10%, respectively). Luckily, there was no more contraction enquiry like in 2020 and 2021.

As of H1 2022, the rental rate of Grade A increased to USD 44.9/sqm/month, up 0.15% q-o-q and 6.6% y-o-y. The rental rate of Grade B is relatively stable at USD 25.9/sqm/month, down 0.1% q-o-q and 3.3% higher y-o-y.

HCMC expects to welcome nearly 30,000 sqm NLA (Net leasable area) in the second half of 2022 from three Grade B buildings and two Grade A building. Alongside the Sai Gon riverbanks, the previously pending buildings due to Covid have resumed construction, shaping up a very promising development of a well-planned and magnificent skyline for the neighborhood. The total supply of this area is 250,000 sqm.

The first half of 2022 also marked the return of flexible working spaces with a high occupancy of more than 90%. Operators have been actively looking for new locations to expand their business and meet the customer’s stronger demand. During the period, 3 expansion transactions have been recorded with a total area of 3,300 sqm and all are expected to open in the next quarter of 2022.

Due to most of the new supply of the latter half of 2022 are from non – CBD areas, rent of both grades are forecasted to stabilize until 2024. Vacancy rate of Grade A after a period of recovery since the Q2/2021, is expected to rise to more than 25% in 2024 when a new wave of Grade A being launched. Meanwhile, Grade B’s occupancy rate is also predicted to grow within the next two years but soon to be back to year 2021 occupancy rate of 9%, when the future supply becomes limited.

Vietnam Retail Market

According to the General Statistics Office, for the first 6 months of 2022, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services is estimated at VND 2,717 trillion, up 11.7% over the same period last year. The total retail sales of consumer goods and services in the first 6 months of 2022 has a larger scale and growth rate than the same period in the past 5 years. The reason for this increase was mainly due to the low revenue of the same period last year. Due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic and the price of goods continued to increase when fuel prices increased. Revenue from accommodation and food services in the first 6 months of 2022 increased sharply at 20.9% compared to the same period last year, due to the high demand for entertainment and tourism in the summer, the industry's revenue in June 2022 increased by 80% over the same period last year.

In Hanoi, the total supply in H1 2022 is 1,064,739 NLA sqm. In April 2022, after 5 consecutive quarters of no new supply, the market welcome Vincom Mega Mall Smart City in Tay Mo Ward, Nam Tu Liem District. This is a new generation “Life-Design Mall” shopping mall which is expected to be a shopping - entertainment - service destination for the capital city’s people. Meanwhile, in Ho Chi Minh City, there is still no new supply and total supply is nearly 1.1 million NLA sqm.

Commented on the performance of the retail market in H1 2022, Ms. Thanh Pham, Associate Director - Research and Consulting Department, CBRE Vietnam, said that "The market expects to see a strong pick up following significantly increasing number of enquiries. Malls have started to refresh their tenant mix to provide sharper shopping experiences.”.

Specifically, rents in both central and non-CBD areas in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City showed significant growth in H1 2022. In Hanoi, the signs of recovery resulted in higher asking rent in CBD to reach US$132/sqm/month, or by 27% on yearly basis, while this rate stays at US$25/sqm/month in non-CBD. In Ho Chi Minh City, the average asking rent for the ground floor and first floor of the shopping centres in the CBD area reached new peak of US$206/sqm/month, or about 50% year-on-year, more than 7.5 times the rate in the non-CBD area (US$27/sqm/month) (Asking rent excludes VAT and service charges). Notably, the rate at some prime assets in CBD is even recorded up to US$250-350/sqm/month.

Regarding the vacancy rate, the central and non-CBD areas in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City recorded uneven vacancy rates. In the central area of Hanoi, the vacancy rate decreased to 9.9%, or by 1.2 ppts comparing to same period of last year, while the rate is nearly 16% at non-CBD areas. Ho Chi Minh City also saw improved occupancy rate in CBD at nearly 96%, increased by 1.0 ppts on yearly basis. Meanwhile, the area outside the center of Ho Chi Minh City is vacant at more than 12%. Retailer’s earnings are hindered by increases in product and fit-out costs, supply chain issues and labour shortages.

The market witnessed active expansion by retailers in both cities in Q2 2022 across industries. In Hanoi, some big names including Muji, Beauty Box, Lyn, etc. have opened new stores in AEON Mall Ha Dong and Vincom’s shopping centers. On the other hand, during this period, there have also been several new entries and expansion activities of brands in Ho Chi Minh City, especially the appearance of several international brands in the fashion, sportswear, food service industries. CBRE recorded about 40% of the number of brands opening new stores in the second quarter of 2022 in Crescent Mall District 7 with Hermès Beauty and Som Tum Thai, Skechers and especially, in June 2022, Guerlain Ultimate Boutique opened its first store in Southeast Asia here. Other notable names are Digibox with the first Apple Authorized Reseller in Vietnam at Estella Place District 2 and Baccarat at Sheraton Saigon Hotel, District 1. Besides, there are more international brands to come to the market soon from a variety of sectors such as fashions, F&B, home furniture, etc.

In 2022, Hanoi will see additional 19,000 NLA sqm from two project including The Zei in Tu Liem District and Hinode City in Hai Ba Trung District, and then about 300,000 sqm from a number of new shopping malls to launch in 2023-2024. In term of pipeline, Ho Chi Minh City will expect to welcome 1 new supply in late this year with NLA of 35,000 sqm from Thiso Shopping Center (previously known as Socar Mall), the future supply in next 2 years will reach 230,000 sqm net leasable area.

Shopping centres in CBD have seen foot traffic returning to the pre-pandemic level. Rental rates in the CBD are reaching a new high. However, non-CBD malls will need longer time to recover.

In addition, CBRE expects sustainability to continue becoming a strategic priority for many retailers and embedded in operations. For example, McDonald’s to trial clear plastic cups sourced from recycled and biobased materials. By 2025, McDonald's wants to source all of its packaging from renewable, recycled or certified sources and introduce recycling in all of its locations. Another example is that 100% of Guerlain’s new glass jars and bottles will contain partly recycled glass by the end of 2023. In Vietnam, Guerlain uses recycled perfume test paper strips.

Regarding the market outlook, Ms. Thanh Pham, Associate Director - Research and Consulting Department, CBRE Vietnam, shared that “CBRE expects that with rental demand in prime locations continuing to be maintained, rental booths in the city center and along main streets will be highly sought after. In the coming time, the rental price in this area will continue to increase.”. In addition, brick-and-mortar stores still and will continue to keep their momentum based on consumer analysis, focusing on upgrading the consumer experience by integrating in-store conveniences, enhancing customer service and customer satisfaction, ability to fulfill orders online, a well-established trend in the F&B sector. Overall, retailers are still optimistic about the business situation this year, although increasing inflationary pressure on the economy may make the market recovery less affected. Concerns about difficulties and inflationary pressures will continue to increase in the coming time for the domestic economy, which is expected to affect the retail segment when the prices of raw materials and consumer goods increase, affecting consumer spending and consumer confidence index.

Vietnam Industrial Market

In the first half of 2022, although the global supply chain is still being affected by geopolitical factors and Mainland China’s Zero Covid policy, Vietnam's industrial real estate market still recorded many positive signals after the country reopened its borders. A series of industrial parks and warehouse projects across locations started construction. Leasing demand started to pick up, and accordingly, the number of inquiries for industrial and warehouse land leases received by CBRE increased by 10% and 7% y-o-y, respectively.

With increasing demand for logistics due to the wave of shifting production facilities to Vietnam, active construction sites were observed across asset types in both Northern and Southern regions during H1 2022; specifically, the groundbreaking of VSIP 3 - the 11th VSIP industrial park in Vietnam in Binh Duong province with an area of over 1,000 ha; the groundbreaking ceremony of KCN DEEP C at DEEP C Industrial Park Hai Phong II with a scale of 10.6 ha; JD Future Explore V Limited started the construction of JD Property (Vietnam) Logistics Park Hai Phong 1 at the Non-Tariff Zone and Nam Dinh Vu Industrial Park (Zone 1), with land area of 97,000 sqm. Most recently, in June 2022, BWID started the project “Project 16 - BW Phu Nghia ready-built warehouse” at Phu Nghia Industrial Park, Hanoi, the first project of BW in Hanoi to be built with LEED green standards.

In the North, there is ongoing infrastructure improvements. For example, Hanoi kicked off Ring Road 4 project in April 2022. Other significant projects include an investment of more than VND 2,500 billion in 2 container terminals in Hai Phong and the upcoming operation of the entire Van Don - Mong Cai expressway from August 2022. Meanwhile, the Ring Road No. 3 in HCMC is expected to enhance competitiveness for the Southern region. Ring Road No. 3 passes through 4 cities and provinces including Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Long An, with a total length of 76.34 km. The preparation for investment and project implementation from 2022, will be basically completed in 2025 and put into operation from 2026. The Ring Road 3 project in Ho Chi Minh City was approved by the National Assembly on the Investment Policy in mid-June 2022. With the completion of the infrastructure system, the industrial park market is expected to receive positive demand in the near future.

Regarding market performance of industrial land, Tier 1 markets recorded positive occupancy rates of 80% in Northern region and up to 90% in the Southern region during H1 2022. CBRE’s data for 5 key industrial cities/provinces in the North including Hanoi, Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, and Hai Duong covers nearly 15,000 ha of industrial land. Meanwhile, the main cities and provinces in Southern region are in Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai, Binh Duong, and Long An with total land scale of more than 30,000 ha.

Thanks to positive occupancy rates, average land rent of Tier 1 markets recorded a growth of 5-12% y-o-y in the North and 8-13% y-o-y in the South. As per CBRE’s record, for selected industrial parks in each region, rents can increase by up to 20% in Northern region and 26% in the South. Meanwhile, with the supply of warehouses growing rapidly in many localities, warehouse rents were kept at a stable level. Industrial land prices are to stay at a high level, while warehouse and RBF’s rents are to slightly increase at 0-3%.

There is strong demand from automotive and electronics sectors, which is expected to drive healthy occupancy rate of industrial parks, especially in the North. In the first half of 2022, the enquires from these sectors cover 22% of CBRE’s enquiries in the North. In addition, electronics sector also continued to expand further with the presence of some big names such as Samsung, LG Display, Xiaomi, Goertek, who expanded in factory scale, or started to lease new factory space for production in Vietnam.

Within the next three years, supply of industrial land will be increasing by more than 14,000 hectares for both markets. Second-tier industrial provinces will account for about 21% to 42% of the supply in the South and the North, respectively. Some industrial parks that are expected to come into operation in the second half of 2022 and early 2023 have achieved positive pre-commitment rates, as much as 40% - 100% of the first phase of deployment. With positive demand, industrial land rents expect to increase by 5-10% in the next three years in the North and 8-13% in the South.

CBRE forecast that pipeline for both warehouses and RBF remains strong in the next three years. In the Northern region, 87% of new supply during 2022 – 2024F will come from two provinces of Hai Phong and Bac Ninh. Meanwhile, in the South, 60% of new the supply during the period coming from Binh Duong.

In term of regulations, the global minimum tax that’s expected to come in effect by 2023 will impact Vietnam’s strategy to attract FDI. Therefore, apart from tax incentives, industrial occupiers are now advised to also consider other factors for site selection (labor force, location, infrastructure, cost related factors etc.) while developers are expected to strengthen their products and services to attract tenants other than just relying on tax incentives by Government. Meanwhile, several changes are being made to support the development of future industrial parks and an increase in quality supply; most recently is the issuance of Decree No. 35/2022/ND-CP regulating the management of industrial parks and economic zones. The key highlights of this regulation include simplifying procedures related to establishment and expansion of industrial parks, promoting eco-industrial park models and supporting the development of amenities and worker housing.

CBRE expects a surge in e-commerce dedicated logistics space. For every US$ 1 billion of additional e-commerce sales, it would require an additional of 92,903 sqm of logistics space. Over the next 5 years, about 160-200 million sqm of additional e-commerce-dedicated logistics space will be required worldwide. Vietnam is becoming the second-largest digital economy in Southeast Asia, just behind Indonesia, and the market will draw more large-scale businesses. It is estimated that more than 2 million sqm of additional e-commerce-dedicated logistics space will be required by 2025 in Vietnam.

Regarding market outlook, Ms. Thanh Pham, Associate Director - Research and Consulting Department, CBRE Vietnam, commented that “Healthy pre-commitment at new industrial parks is expected to continue at industrial parks in good locations or having unique advantages. Moreover, supply of both industrial land and warehouse/RBF will continue to increase across regions supported by growing demand across sectors. Industrial occupiers are suggested to seize the opportunities to expand while negotiating better terms while developers are expected to adjust their rental strategies tailored for each location. Industrial land rents expect to remain high across various locations. Another trend is that multi-storey RBFs and warehouses will become more prevalent in prime locations”.

HCMC Condominium Market

In the post-pandemic era, residential market maintained its position as a sustainable investment channel for mid- to long-term investors in HCMC. After a quiet quarter with lower than 900 newly launched units, the market saw new supply rocketing in Q2 2022. New supply was booming to 15,528 units from 12 new launches, exceeding total new stock of 2021. The Eastern area, especially Thu Duc City, contributed up to 88% of quarterly new supply thanks to the entrance of subsequence phases of township development - Vinhomes Grand Park.

Supported by upgrading project positioning in suburban districts, the high-end segment continued to dominate the market, representing 93% of new supply this quarter. Mid-end segment had only one new launch in Q2 2022 while affordable segment went extinct since Q1 2019. However, the mid-end products which meet the majority of end-user demand were most popular in HCMC with share of 41% of total accumulated supply.

The improvement in price of suburban projects has not only caused the segmentation change in new supply but also driven primary pricing growth. The average primary price recorded at US$2,455 psm, increasing 2.7% q-o-q and 8.6% y-o-y. The mid-end segment benefited the most from upgrading project positioning in non-CBD areas with a price increase of 1.9% q-o-q and 7.0% y-o-y while the luxury and high-end segments suffered price drops of -0.6 to -3.8% y-o-y.

New supply soaring resulted at a jump in sales volume with 11,259 units sold, up nearly 1.4 times y-o-y. Despite a new supply boom, the absorption of new launches maintained unchanged y-o-y at around 72%.

Average Primary Price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on NSA), represents projects available for sale in the primary market at reporting quarter.

With a positive growth of supply in the first half of the year 2022, the market is expected to welcome approximately 22,000 units this year. The high-end and luxury segments will lead new supply with numerous upcoming launches in Thu Duc City and Nha Be District. Under the impact of price improvement in the suburbs, HCMC’s average primary price will continue to enjoy slight growth as prices of new launches are launched at the entry-level of the high-end or luxury segments. Satellite provinces namely Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An and beyond continued to be hub of mid-end and affordable condominium.

Although positive signals in early this year, the market has faced with many headwinds ahead including (1) licensing issues, (2) changes in regulations and credit policies, (3) rising costs and (4) mismatch of supply and demand. These challenges will force both developers and buyers to closely watch out for movements in the macro-economy and plan their optimal solutions.

According to Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, Executive Director, CBRE Vietnam: "After the pandemic, the residential market witnessed a change in developers’ mindset. More green and health-friendly features will be added to meet demand of discerning buyers. The rise of neighboring areas will continue thanks to the improvement of infrastructure and high increasing price in HCMC.”

Notes on CBRE condominium ranking criteria:
1. Ultra-luxury: projects that have primary prices over US$12,000 psm
2. Luxury: projects that have primary prices US$4,000 psm to US$12,000 psm
3. High-end: projects that have primary prices from US$2,000 psm to US$4,000 psm
4. Mid-end: projects that have primary prices from US$1,000 psm to US$2,000 psm
5. Affordable: projects that have primary prices under US$1,000 psm
(Selling price excludes VAT)

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