CBRE Releases Hanoi Quarterly Report Highlights - Q2 2022

Hanoi – July 05th, 2022 –
Hanoi Residential Market

In the first half of 2022, there were approximately 8,200 condominium units launched in Hanoi. There was a total of 15 projects launched during the first six months of the year, in which, only three projects were firstly introduced to the market. In terms of segment, high-end products accounted for 55% of total new supply in H1 2022 – the highest portion in new launch since 2011. In terms of location, West contributed 53% of total new launch.

In terms of sales performance, sold units continued to surpass new launch in H1 2022 amid moderate new launch. The number of sold units recorded in the first six months of 2022 is around 10,800 units. Projects in township developments showed positive absorption and strongly contributed to the total sold units during the reviewed period.

In Q2 2022, primary prices of Hanoi market averaged US$1,872 psm (net of VAT and maintenance fee), up by 27% y-o-y due to higher share of high-end products in the total stock available for sale. Apart from the upgraded positioning of township developments, the launches of high-end and luxury projects in Dong Da and Tay Ho districts contributed to higher primary prices during the quarter. In the secondary market, the increases in selling prices were recorded in various locations. Average secondary selling prices reached US$1,293 psm, up by 9% y-o-y. High-end projects in central districts such as Hai Ba Trung, Dong Da and Ba Dinh recorded growth of more than 10% y-o-y. Due to increasing selling prices and still muted rental demand, rental yields in major residential hubs in Hanoi have not shown significant improvement. In Q2 2022, average rental yields in Hanoi hovered around 4.0% – 5.5%.

Moving forwards, new launch supply is expected to bounce back in 2022, reaching around 20,000 – 22,000 units in Hanoi – lower than previous forecast due to delays of some projects until 2023 onwards. As the level of new launch is expected to stay at a morderate level, the number of sold units are expected to exceed number of units launched during the year. Average primary prices are expected to increase at CAGR of 8 – 10% until 2024.

For landed property segment, there were 5,849 units launched from 5 projects in H1 2022, equivalent to an increase of about 3.3 times compared to H1 2021. In Q2 2022, the market recorded another 5,553 units launched from 4 new projects with a large supply coming from The Empire – Vinhomes Ocean Park project. New products recorded prices averaging $7,300/sqm, much higher than the level of $5,000/sqm recorded of projects launched during Q2 2021. In terms of secondary selling prices, Q2 2022 also recorded growth of between 5-17% y-o-y among projects at various locations in Hanoi, depending on the segment. In the coming quarters, Hanoi urban area and the surrounding area are expected to see new projects launching. The total supply of new launches in 2022 is expected to reach about 7,000-8,000 units. In terms of sales rates, although demand of both investors and buyers remains high for this segment, this trend is forecast to cool down in H2 2022 as interest rates begin to rise along with credit being tightened. The price trend is expected to continue to grow but at a slower pace due to macro factors being adjusted.

Ms. An Nguyen – Director of Hanoi Branch, CBRE Vietnam noted “The residential real estate market is undergoing headwinds of inflationary pressure, tightened credit policies as well as licensing issues and regulatory changes under proposal. However, strong infrastructure development, fundamental demand as well as a more diversified presence of players will help to transform the picture of Hanoi real estate market”.

Notes on CBRE condominium ranking criteria:
1. Ultra-luxury: projects that have primary prices over US$12,000 psm
2. Luxury: projects that have primary prices from US$4,000 psm to less than US$12,000 psm
3. High-end: projects that have primary prices from US$2,000 psm to less than US$4,000 psm
4. Mid-end: projects that have primary prices from US$1,000 psm to less than US$2,000 psm
5. Affordable: projects that have primary prices under US$1,000 psm
Average Primary Price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and maintenance fee, quoted on NSA), including all projects available for sales

Hanoi Office Market

During H1 2022, the Hanoi office market welcomed one large Grade A project in the CBD. The project provides to the market only 5,000 sqm NLA as most of the building space will be owner-occupied. By end of the review period, the total office supply in the Hanoi exceeded 1.6 million sqm NLA, with Grade A projects accounting for 38% of total supply. Despite limited new supply in the first half of 2022, the Hanoi market recorded an absorption rate of more than 20,000sqm, with Grade A projects accounting for the majority of office space absorption.

Following the improvement of market performance from the previous quarter, rents in Q2 2022 continued to increase. Specifically, in Q2 2022, Grade A office asking rents reached US$28.7/sqm/month, up 4.0% q-o-q and 5.8% y-o-y. Likewise, Grade B office rents increased by 1.8% q-o-q and 2.6% y-o-y, to US$14.30/sqm/month. Rental growth at the Capital Place, in particular, has pushed average rents of Grade A in the Midtown area close to the level of Grade A rents in the CBD. Furthermore, average vacancy rates of existing office projects decreased when vacancy rates of Grade A offices reduced to 16.6%; down 2.3 ppts q-o-q and 4.5 ppts y-o-y. At the same time, average vacancy rates of Grade B offices decreased slightly by 0.3 ppts q-o-q and 1.3 ppts y-o-y, reaching 10.4%. The reported rents and vacancy rates of Grade A offices in Hanoi do not include the impact of the Technopark Tower. With this project added, average rents and vacancy rates of Grade A will be $25.60 and 28.7%, respectively.

In terms of demand, office expansion and relocation demand continued to contribute to the majority of CBRE transactions in Hanoi, accounting for more than 82% of total transactions. IT/Tech and Banking/Finance/Insurance continued to dominate the market, accounting for 37% of all transactions in Hanoi. With decision-making for expansion typically taking only 3 to 6 months, the fast-paced information technology industry, with strong capital back-up, continues to expand their leased premises. CBRE also recorded several transactions from local real estate firms establishing new offices in Hanoi. Another demand driver during the review period is co-working space, with transactions accounting for 17% of total transaction volume in the first half of 2022. The number of leasing inquiries and site inspections received and conducted by CBRE this quarter was also 40% higher than the previous quarter, with foreign corporations primarily interested in medium- and large-sized offices ranging from 300sqm to more than 1,000sqm.

The Hanoi office market is expected to welcome three Grade A office projects and two Grade B office projects in the second half of 2022. Strong leasing momentum would ensure a stable absorption rate. While much of new supply will be coming from non-CBD area, rents in both grades are expected to remain stable until the end of the year.

Hanoi Retail Market

In H1 2022, the retail market continued the growth momentum of the previous quarter, gradually recovering the heavy impacts of the 4th wave of the pandemic. According to the General Statistics Office, the total sales of consumer goods and services in H1 2022 in Vietnam was estimated at VND 2,717 trillion, posting a 11.7% growth. This is a significant improved from H1 2021’s 4.9%.

In April 2022, after 5 consecutive quarters without new supply, Hanoi market welcomed Vincom Mega Mall Smart City in Tay Mo ward, Nam Tu Liem district, with net leasable area of 49,000 sqm. Total net leasable area of Hanoi Retail market as of H1 2022 was recorded at 1,064,739 sqm.

In terms of market performance, rents in both CBD and non-CBD locations in Hanoi improved during the first 6 months of 2022. Specifically, asking rents on the ground floor (excluding VAT and service charges) in non-CBD shopping centers showed signs of recovery, reaching 25 USD/sqm/month, up by 8.0% q-o-q and 3.7% y-o-y. Vacancy rates of malls in non-CBD locations increased slightly by 1.2pt y-o-y due to new supply. In the CBD, signs of recovery were seen more clearly when asking rents increased sharply at US$132/sqm/month, up 23.8% q-o-q and 27.1% y-o-y as tenants in fashion, food & beverage and accessories were actively looking for quality space in the CBD to welcome a large number of visitors after Covid-related restrictions had been lifted. Vacancy rates in the CBD area did not fluctuate much compared to the last quarter while down by about 0.9 ppts y-o-y.

The retail market this quarter saw active expansion of retailers in both cities in Q2 2022. In Hanoi, international retailers such as Hublot, Muji, Beauty Box, Lyn,... opened new stores in major shopping malls such as Trang Tien Plaza, Aeon Mall Ha Dong and Vincom shopping malls. The market has also welcomed the entrance of new brands such as Benjamin Barker.

In H2 2022, Hanoi expects an additional 19,000 sqm of NLA of new retail space from The Zei in Tu Liem district and Hinode City in Hai Ba Trung district. As much as 300,000 sqm of NLA of retail space is expected to be put into operation over the period leading up to 2024. The majority of these projects are concentrated in non-CBD area. Two large-scale projects, Lotte Mall Hanoi and Aeon Mall Hoang Mai, are expected to be completed in 2023-2024, of which Aeon Mall Hoang Mai has almost completed land clearance process.

Looking forward, CBRE anticipates that with demand for prime locations remaining firm, space in city centres and along prime high streets will remain keenly sought-after in the coming time. In addition, brick-and-mortar stores remain and will continue to maintain momentum based on consumer analytics. Physical retail stores will focus on facilitating consumer experience by integrating in-store utilities and enhancing online order fulfilment capabilities, a trend already evident within the F&B sector. Retailers are still expressing optimism about the economy this year, although rising inflationary pressures on the economy may slow the pace of the sector’s recovery. Concerns about challenges and inflationary pressures in the coming time are expected to affect the retail sector as costs of raw materials, production costs and consumer goods prices expect to increase further, affecting consumer spending and consumer confidence.

Vietnam Industrial Market

In the first half of 2022, although the global supply chain is still being affected by geopolitical factors and Mainland China’s Zero Covid policy, Vietnam's industrial real estate market still recorded many positive signals after the country reopened its borders. A series of industrial parks and warehouse projects across locations started construction. Leasing demand started to pick up, and accordingly, the number of inquiries for industrial and warehouse land leases received by CBRE increased by 10% and 7% y-o-y, respectively.

With increasing demand for logistics due to the wave of shifting production facilities to Vietnam, active construction sites were observed across asset types in both Northern and Southern regions during H1 2022; specifically, the groundbreaking of VSIP 3 - the 11th VSIP industrial park in Vietnam in Binh Duong province with an area of over 1,000 ha; the groundbreaking ceremony of KCN DEEP C at DEEP C Industrial Park Hai Phong II with a scale of 10.6 ha; JD Future Explore V Limited started the construction of JD Property (Vietnam) Logistics Park Hai Phong 1 at the Non-Tariff Zone and Nam Dinh Vu Industrial Park (Zone 1), with land area of 97,000 sqm. Most recently, in June 2022, BWID started the project “Project 16 - BW Phu Nghia ready-built warehouse” at Phu Nghia Industrial Park, Hanoi, the first project of BW in Hanoi to be built with LEED green standards.

In the North, there is ongoing infrastructure improvements. For example, Hanoi kicked off Ring Road 4 project in April 2022. Other significant projects include an investment of more than VND 2,500 billion in 2 container terminals in Hai Phong and the upcoming operation of the entire Van Don - Mong Cai expressway from August 2022. Meanwhile, the Ring Road No. 3 in HCMC is expected to enhance competitiveness for the Southern region. Ring Road No. 3 passes through 4 cities and provinces including Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Long An, with a total length of 76.34 km. The preparation for investment and project implementation from 2022, will be basically completed in 2025 and put into operation from 2026. The Ring Road 3 project in Ho Chi Minh City was approved by the National Assembly on the Investment Policy in mid-June 2022. With the completion of the infrastructure system, the industrial park market is expected to receive positive demand in the near future.

Regarding market performance of industrial land, Tier 1 markets recorded positive occupancy rates of 80% in Northern region and up to 90% in the Southern region during H1 2022. CBRE’s data for 5 key industrial cities/provinces in the North including Hanoi, Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, and Hai Duong covers nearly 15,000 ha of industrial land. Meanwhile, the main cities and provinces in Southern region are in Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai, Binh Duong, and Long An with total land scale of more than 30,000 ha.

Thanks to positive occupancy rates, average land rent of Tier 1 markets recorded a growth of 5-12% y-o-y in the North and 8-13% y-o-y in the South. As per CBRE’s record, for selected industrial parks in each region, rents can increase by up to 20% in Northern region and 26% in the South. Meanwhile, with the supply of warehouses growing rapidly in many localities, warehouse rents were kept at a stable level. Industrial land prices are to stay at a high level, while warehouse and RBF’s rents are to slightly increase at 0-3%.

There is strong demand from automotive and electronics sectors, which is expected to drive healthy occupancy rate of industrial parks, especially in the North. In the first half of 2022, the enquires from these sectors cover 22% of CBRE’s enquiries in the North. In addition, electronics sector also continued to expand further with the presence of some big names such as Samsung, LG Display, Xiaomi, Goertek, who expanded in factory scale, or started to lease new factory space for production in Vietnam.

Within the next three years, supply of industrial land will be increasing by more than 14,000 hectares for both markets. Second-tier industrial provinces will account for about 21% to 42% of the supply in the South and the North, respectively. Some industrial parks that are expected to come into operation in the second half of 2022 and early 2023 have achieved positive pre-commitment rates, as much as 40% - 100% of the first phase of deployment. With positive demand, industrial land rents expect to increase by 5-10% in the next three years in the North and 8-13% in the South.

CBRE forecast that pipeline for both warehouses and RBF remains strong in the next three years. Accumulated supply of Northern region will surpass 2.6 million NLA sqm, of which, 87% of new supply during 2022 – 2024F will come from two provinces of Hai Phong and Bac Ninh. Meanwhile, in the South, there will be around 5 million NLA sqm leading up to 2024 with 60% of new the supply during the period coming from Binh Duong.

In term of regulations, the global minimum tax that’s expected to come in effect by 2023 will impact Vietnam’s strategy to attract FDI. Therefore, apart from tax incentives, industrial occupiers are now advised to also consider other factors for site selection (labor force, location, infrastructure, cost related factors etc.) while developers are expected to strengthen their products and services to attract tenants other than just relying on tax incentives by Government. Meanwhile, several changes are being made to support the development of future industrial parks and an increase in quality supply; most recently is the issuance of Decree No. 35/2022/ND-CP regulating the management of industrial parks and economic zones. The key highlights of this regulation include simplifying procedures related to establishment and expansion of industrial parks, promoting eco-industrial park models and supporting the development of amenities and worker housing.

CBRE expects a surge in e-commerce dedicated logistics space. For every US$ 1 billion of additional e-commerce sales, it would require an additional of 92,903 sqm of logistics space. Over the next 5 years, about 160-200 million sqm of additional e-commerce-dedicated logistics space will be required worldwide. Vietnam is becoming the second-largest digital economy in Southeast Asia, just behind Indonesia, and the market will draw more large-scale businesses. It is estimated that more than 2 million sqm of additional e-commerce-dedicated logistics space will be required by 2025 in Vietnam.

Regarding market outlook, Ms. Thanh Pham, Associate Director - Research and Consulting Department, CBRE Vietnam, commented that “Healthy pre-commitment at new industrial parks is expected to continue at industrial parks in good locations or having unique advantages. Moreover, supply of both industrial land and warehouse/RBF will continue to increase across regions supported by growing demand across sectors. Industrial occupiers are suggested to seize the opportunities to expand while negotiating better terms while developers are expected to adjust their rental strategies tailored for each location. Industrial land rents expect to remain high across various locations. Another trend is that multi-storey RBFs and warehouses will become more prevalent in prime locations”.

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