Vietnam Market Outlook 2024

Economic headwinds resulted in a challenging year during 2023 for the Vietnam real estate market. Improvements were witnessed in the second half of the year, leading to the expectation that that the worst is now behind us: more than 70% of the audience in HCMC and more than 90% of the audience in Hanoi expected the market to improve in 2024.

Industrial: Despite economic challenges in 2023, Vietnam's industrial sector performed well across asset types and regions due to strong demand. Emerging high-tech industries like electric vehicles and semiconductors, along with traditional sectors, demonstrated interest in Vietnam, indicating a positive outlook for the industrial sector in 2024.

Office: Both Hanoi and HCMC experienced a significant increase in office supply, leading to increased vacancy rates in 2023. In Hanoi, while rental rates for Grade A remained stable, Grade B saw a decrease in asking rents due to a new supply. In contrast, asking rents for both Grade A and Grade B offices in HCMC showed little variation, and the absorption was primarily driven by Grade A buildings. Moving forward, the office market expects flexible rental rates, tenant-friendly lease terms, and a focus on green and sustainable factors.

Retail: Vietnam's retail market saw the opening of various new projects last year, with Lotte Mall West Lake Hanoi standing out as the largest shopping mall in Hanoi in four years. Renovated properties like The Loop (Hanoi) and Hung Vuong Plaza (HCMC) also made a comeback. Both cities experienced solid rental growth, driven by the expansion of luxury brands and reduced vacancy rates.

Residential: In 2023, Hanoi and HCMC witnessed decade’s low new supply due to impacts from macro headwinds, recording nearly 13,000 units and slightly over 8,700 units, respectively. Condominium prices in Hanoi are on the upward trend, up by nearly 15% y-o-y while HCMC witnessed flattening price trend. Towards 2024, factors including stabilizing interest rates and upcoming amendments to policy and legal framework will elevate buyers’ sentiments and foster market recovery.